2409 Snedecor Hall
Ames, IA 50011-1210
Phone: 515-294-5582
Fax: 515-294-4040

Recent Publications



For a complete list of publications please refer to my

Most of my research interests a related to answering important questions related to the environment. More specifically, I am interested in the analysis of massive spatial data sets; analysis of areal data, exploratory methods for identification of spatial structure, general spatio-temporal methodology; the use of hierarchical models to forecast wind speed, direction, wind farm power output; functional data analysis for large spatial and temporal data sets; dynamical systems for sptio-temporal data.

I actively collaborate with researchers from many departments at ISU, inlcuding Agronomy, Seed Science, Meteorology, Natural Resource Ecology and Management Ecology, Plant Pathology, Forestry, Geology and Atmospheric Sciences, Agricultural and Biosystems Engineering, Economics, Political Sciences, Civil Engineering, as well as from the grocery store chain HyVee, Iowa Soybean Association, MidAmerican Energy, Los Alamos and Pacific Norhtwestern National Labs.

Selected publications:

  1. D. Osthus, K. Hickmann, P. Caragea, D. Higdon, S. Del Valle.
    Forecasting seasonal influenza with a state-space SIR model
    Annals of Applied Statistics 11(1): 202-224, 2017.

  2. Sherwood, J.A., Debinski, D.M., Caragea, P.C., Germino, M.
    Effects of Experimentally Reduced Snowpack and Passive Warming on Montane Meadow Plant Phenology and Floral Resources
    Ecosphere, 8(3), 2017.

  3. Fuentes-Ramirez, A., Mudrak, E., Caragea, P.C., Holzapfel, C., Moloney, K.
    A Modeling Approach to Understand the Impact of Wildfires on the Spatial Pattern of Creosote Bush in the Sonoran and Mojave deserts.
    Oecologia, 1-12, 2015.

  4. Caragea, P.C., Berg, E.J.
    A Centered Bivariate Spatial Regression Model for Binary Data with an Application to Presettlement Vegetation Data in the Midwestern United States
    Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics, 19(4): 453-471, 2014 [Details]

  5. D. Osthus, P. C. Caragea, D. Higdon, S. K. Morley, G. D. Reeves, B. P. Weaver.
    Towards Better Empirical Forecasting of Radiation Belt Electrons and Limitations on Physical Interpretation of Predictive Models
    Space Weather 12 (6): 426-446, 2014

  6. Bramer, L., Hornbuckle, B., Caragea, P.C.
    How Many Measurements of Soil Moisture within the Footprint of a Ground-based Microwave Radiometer are Required to Account for Meter-scale Spatial Variability?
    Vadose Zone Journal, 12(3), 2013

  7. Kaiser, M.S., Caragea, P.C., Furukawa, K.
    Centered Parameterizations and Dependence Limitations in Markov Random Field Models
    Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, 142(7): 1855-1863, 2012 [Details]

  8. Khanal, S., Anex, R., Gelder, B., Dixon, P., Caragea, P.C.
    Cropping Pattern Choice with Proximity to Ethanol Production and Animal Feeding Operations
    Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining Journal, 6(4): 431-443, 2012 [Details]

  9. Kyveryga, P., Blackmer, T.M., Caragea, P.C.
    Categorical Analysis of Spatial Variability in Economic Yield Response of Corn to Nitrogen Fertilization
    Agronomy Journal, 103(3), 2011 [Details]

  10. Hughes, J.P., Haran, M., Caragea, P.C.
    Markov random field models for binary data on a lattice
    Environmetrics, 7: 857-871, 2011 [Details]

Current Students:

Past Students: